Strive for Five: 

First down success is well documented as a key for good drives (I would suggest a good drive results in points), however I wanted to focus in on the first play of a drive. The first play of a drive is often called a P10 play or P down (as in Possession starting play). A typical college game has 13 drives per team and the NFL has 12. So you should be game-planning for 12-13 P10 plays. With a weekly overage of 20% you may want to add a few more for those games with additional drives.

I went through this years 2020 NFL game data, so far there has been 5634 drives. 2642 of them started with a play of 5 or more yards. Of those drives 54% ended up with a touchdown or field goal attempt.

The remaining 3172 drives started with a gain of 4 or less, only 33.9% of those drives ended up with a touchdown or field goal attempt.

This a difference of 20.1% chance of scoring based on the success of the first play of the drive! I think a lot of focus is put on 3rd down and yes that’s a crucial conversion chance, but putting yourself ahead of the sticks to open a drive has a huge effect.

In the small sample size of college football the number have been even greater and this magnify the importance of a P10 play.

I would recommend as you are putting your call sheet together I would add a column for P10 plays and make sure you are starting off with the best play you have available.

As we move on into 2021 I hope to share more ideas and through with everyone and look forward to talking more ball!

Yours in football!

Rich