It’s been quite a while since my last email, an unexpected side effect of covid 19. Our spring ball was cancelled and like so many the online clinic circuit began to dominate our time. We did get an opportunity to compete in the fall and now are back in the office this spring, so I thought I would get RFF back up and running!
Strive for Five:
First down success is well documented as a key for good drives (I would suggest a good drive results in points), however I wanted to focus in on the first play of a drive. The first play of a drive is often called a P10 play or P down (as in Possession starting play). A typical college game has 13 drives per team and the NFL has 12. So you should be game-planning for 12-13 P10 plays. With a weekly overage of 20% you may want to add a few more for those games with additional drives.
I went through this years 2020 NFL game data, so far there has been 5634 drives. 2642 of them started with a play of 5 or more yards. Of those drives 54% ended up with a touchdown or field goal attempt.
The remaining 3172 drives started with a gain of 4 or less, only 33.9% of those drives ended up with a touchdown or field goal attempt.
This a difference of 20.1% chance of scoring based on the success of the first play of the drive! I think a lot of focus is put on 3rd down and yes that’s a crucial conversion chance, but putting yourself ahead of the sticks to open a drive has a huge effect.
In the small sample size of college football the number have been even greater and this magnify the importance of a P10 play.
I would recommend as you are putting your call sheet together I would add a column for P10 plays and make sure you are starting off with the best play you have available.
As we move on into 2021 I hope to share more ideas and through with everyone and look forward to talking more ball!